Calcium silicon market analysis 2023-1-3: In 2022, the weak market of silicon-calcium will run through from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and the pressure of the epidemic and the shrinking demand will accompany the whole year. At the beginning of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic and environmental protection in the north, the overall demand for calcium-silicon market was weak, while the production at the factory end was stable. Under the pressure of imbalance between supply and demand, the price of calcium-silicon dropped repeatedly. In the first ten days of March, the positive factors of raw materials became prominent, coupled with a slight increase in demand, factories raised market quotations sharply, but the general environment was not good, and the market’s enthusiasm for chasing higher prices was weak. High quotations were only a flash in the pan, and then continued to weaken under the pull of weak demand . Under the long-term situation of strong supply and weak demand, the spot inventory in the silicon-calcium market is increasing day by day, and the transaction price is constantly approaching the cost line. Under the influence of the economic depression, low-priced goods will always exist, and the price of silicon-calcium is difficult to maintain stability. During the fourth quarter, in order to reduce inventory pressure and try to stabilize prices, silicon-calcium factories successively stopped production to consume inventory, but the actual sales situation is not optimistic. In order to facilitate transactions, some factories have been in a state of loss for a long time. Until the end of the year, a large amount of inventory is still a huge problem facing the calcium-silicon market.
1. Review of Calcium Silicon Market in 2022
The first quarter: the price of calcium silicon fell sharply. In Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other major producing areas, silicon-calcium manufacturers maintain normal production, and the market has abundant spot resources. With the successive development of the Winter Olympics, the Two Sessions and the Paralympic Games, the environmental protection efforts in the northern region have not diminished, and steel companies have started construction. The output has been affected, so there is very little demand for front-end raw materials, and the market price of silicon-calcium is also under constant pressure. During January and February alone, it fell from 21,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 16,000 yuan/ton, a decline per ton About 5000 yuan. With the completion of the meeting, the market demand increased slightly, coupled with the rise in raw material prices, the price of calcium silicon has ushered in an opportunity to boost, and factory quotations have risen sharply to stimulate downstream consumption. However, the epidemic situation is severe, downstream procurement is more rational, and the mood for chasing higher prices is not good, and under the control of this round of epidemic situation, the bidding of steel enterprises has been slow, and some of them have to wait and see. Therefore, the high quotations of silicon-calcium are mostly due to the price but no market. In order to facilitate the transaction, the factory had to call-back the quotation again.
The second quarter: the decline of calcium silicon has slowed down. Hebei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are the main flow directions of the national standard calcium-silicon alloy. Under the influence of the epidemic control, the demand has shrunk significantly, the inventory of calcium-silicon has gradually increased, and the consumption pressure is relatively high. Due to the high cost of raw materials and freight, the profit margin of the factory has narrowed. The decline in calcium silicon has slowed down compared to the first quarter. In mid-June, due to the excessive cost pressure of factory electricity, labor, and raw materials, the market price of silicon-calcium gradually approached the cost. In order to avoid losses, the price of silicon-calcium was raised across the board. However, the demand was weak and the inventory was high, and the willingness to buy goods at high prices downstream was weak. The actual transaction price and quotation are quite different.
The third quarter: the price of calcium silicon continued to decline. It is the off-season, the production reduction of steel mills is common, the sales of alloy products are difficult, and the high inventory of silicon-calcium is difficult to digest. Under the pressure of sales and costs, a factory in Fugu area overhauled a 33000KVA submerged arc furnace in early July. In August, the price of calcium metal products rebounded, the mentality of the calcium-silicon alloy market improved, and the price increase was expected to be strong. Under the influence of the Shenmu epidemic, the price of semi-coke, a raw material, rose tensely, and the positive factors in the calcium-silicon market increased. Under this situation, calcium-silicon alloys have not seen any gains. September did not usher in the “Golden Nine”, the silicon-calcium alloy market is still sluggish, and the price is still bottoming out. Although the consumption of steel enterprises has improved, the speed of demand recovery is still not as good as the production speed of factories, and the inventory remains high.
The fourth quarter: the overall trend of calcium silicon is relatively stable. The market mostly focuses on the 20th National Congress in October, and waits for the introduction of favorable policies after the meeting. The Fugu Calcium Silicon Plant also started production in early October. However, it will take time for the policy to be implemented, and the benefits will not be highlighted in the short term. . Due to the huge pressure on the social inventory of silicon-calcium, superimposed epidemic control, and poor traffic, some factories are facing the problem of raw material supply cut-offs. Enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have ceased production one after another. The market takes inventory consumption as the primary goal, and most factories are operating at a loss, so they are unwilling to make profit. , the “lying flat” operation is the main type. The epidemic situation was released in December, and the labor force of downstream processing plants and terminal steel enterprises was greatly reduced, and the output was reduced again. The calcium-silicon market is even more depressed. We can only hope that the market economy will recover next year.
On the whole, the overall decline of silicon-calcium alloys during 2022 is about 12,200-12,400 yuan/ton. The reasons for restraining its price decline are firstly the complicated international situation, secondly, the sluggish domestic and foreign markets, and thirdly, the repeated impact of the epidemic on demand, various negative factors Under restraint, the silicon-calcium alloy market continued to decline.
2. The output of calcium silicon market in 2022
(1) Construction of calcium silicon will start in 2022
As far as the start-up situation of enterprises in the calcium-silicon market this year is concerned, due to the weak market, it is difficult to consume spot stocks in the market. Since the second half of the year, the start-up of calcium-silicon alloys has shown a downward trend. Of the remaining 3 companies, there are only 3 submerged arc furnaces in production, reaching the lowest level in the whole year.
(2) Comparison of Calcium Silicon Production in 2021-2022
Judging from the comparison of silicon-calcium alloy output in 2021 and 2022, the total output of silicon-calcium alloy is about 93,100 tons from January to December 2022, and the total output of silicon-calcium alloy in 2021 is about 85,870 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 7,230 tons. In 2021, due to the impact of local energy consumption and production and electricity restriction policies, the production of silicon-calcium market will fluctuate greatly in the second half of the year. In 2022, it will be mainly affected by inventory, epidemic situation and economic environment. During the fourth quarter, silicon-calcium production will drop sharply.
3. Outlook of Calcium Silicon Market in 2023
At present, the primary problem facing calcium silicon is still a large amount of inventory, which makes it difficult to boost prices, and many factories operate at a loss. If things go on like this, it will greatly weaken the enthusiasm of factories for production and hinder the healthy development of the calcium silicon market.
This year, affected by the domestic and foreign economic environment and the epidemic situation, the market demand for silicon-calcium is sluggish, and the long-term mismatch between supply and demand suppresses the development of the market. Since the epidemic was released at the end of the year, there are many uncertainties in the market in the later stage, but compared with the frequent restrictions on the production demand of downstream enterprises under control, the release of the epidemic has given calcium silicon factories a glimmer of hope for the market in 2023.
During the first half of 2023, the market may be in the exploratory stage after the epidemic policy is released, and the pace of economic recovery is slow, which will drag down the consumption process of silicon-calcium inventory. Therefore, even if the start-up of silicon-calcium factories is reduced during the first half of the year, it will be difficult for market supply and demand to enter a balanced state. The market may continue to remain weak. During the second half of the year, the epidemic situation may weaken, and the calcium-silicon inventory will also be consumed to a certain extent. Coupled with the support of national policies, the calcium-silicon market is expected to be boosted.
Ferro Silicon Calcium Manufacturers
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