Multivariate Monthly Review in April: Calcium silicon is a stalemate

Since April, the ferroalloy market has remained sluggish, steel prices have continued to decline, steel mills are operating at a loss, and production has been shut down for frequent maintenance. The consumption of upstream alloy products is not good, and orders for some products have shrunk significantly. Diversified enterprises are operating under pressure.

1. Calcium silicon

The price of silicon-calcium alloy continued to decline in April.

(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium silicon in April

As shown in the figure above, the mainstream transaction price in the national standard ca1 market in Shaanxi is 11,800-12,000 yuan/ton; The market transaction price of ca2 is 11,600-11,800 yuan/ton, that of Ningxia is 11,600-11,800 yuan/ton, that of Inner Mongolia is 11,300-11,500 yuan/ton; that of ca28si55 in Henan is 11,300-11,500 yuan/ton, and that of ca28si50 The transaction is 10400-10700 yuan/ton (including tax in cash).

(2) the Export market price of calcium silicon in April

According to this month’s export market transaction report data, the current national standard ca1 export transaction price is 1750-1850 US dollars/ton, national standard ca2 1730-1830 US dollars/ton (FOB price, Tianjin Port), and this month the export price of calcium silicon is stable.

(3) Start-up statistics

According to the statistics of 6 national standard silicon-calcium alloy production enterprises on this website, there are 5 enterprises in the calcium-silicon market in April 2023, and the actual number of furnaces is 6. The operating rate of the enterprises is about 83.33%, and the operating rate of the number of furnaces is about 60. %, an increase of 10% from the previous month. It is estimated that the total market output in April will be about 6,600 tons, an increase of about 1,050 tons compared with the actual output in March (5,550 tons).

(4) Future market forecast of calcium silicon

In the middle of this month, the Ningxia Zhongwei calcium silicon factory resumed production smoothly, which has not had any impact on market prices yet. During April, steel prices continued to decline, steel mills stopped production due to overhaul, and the demand for silicon-calcium alloys decreased significantly. However, considering that the May Day holiday is coming, and the selling price has approached the production cost of silicon-calcium, it is difficult for silicon-calcium factories to stabilize prices to Prevent hanging upside down. Up to now, the positive factors in the market have not yet been highlighted. During May, silicon-calcium alloys may not rule out the possibility of further downward consolidation, but the decline will not be too large with cost support.

2. Barium silicon

This month, the high barium is weakly consolidated, and the low barium continues to be stable.

(1) Domestic market trend chart of barium silicon in April

(2) Domestic market price

As shown in the monthly price comparison table, the current high barium 30# Inner Mongolia is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, Gansu high barium is 8900-9000 yuan/ton; low barium 4-6# natural block Inner Mongolia is 8000-8100 yuan/ton, Ningxia 8000-8100 Yuan/ton, Qinghai 7900-8000 yuan/ton, low barium 2-3# natural block Inner Mongolia 8000-8100 yuan/ton, Ningxia 8000-8100 yuan/ton (ex-factory tax price).

(3) Start-up Statistics

According to the incomplete statistics of 17 high- and low-barium alloy production enterprises on this website, in April 2023, a total of 9 enterprises started to produce silicon-barium alloys in the silicon-barium market (including 6 high-barium production enterprises and 4 low-barium production enterprises (including self-use) ), 1 high and low barium production enterprise), the actual number of furnaces is 12, the operating rate (by manufacturer) is about 52.94%, a decrease of 11.77% from the previous month, and the expected output is 11,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous month.

(3) Future market forecast of silicon barium

During April, the price of high-barium alloys continued to consolidate downwards, and the price of low-barium alloys stabilized. Due to the slow consumption rate of steel mills, superimposed maintenance, limited production, and other factors, the market for silicon-based composite alloys is sluggish, and the demand for front-end high-barium products is very limited. It is difficult for factories to ship at high prices, so the quotation was narrowed down slightly. The low-barium market starts to change frequently, but the market has always maintained a tight balance, so factories are mostly stalemated and stabilize prices. It is expected that the correction of the silicon-barium market will remain small during May, and the terminal will pay attention to the changes in the start of work and the relationship between supply and demand in the market.

3. Calcium metal

(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium metal in April

(2) Domestic market price

At present, the mainstream transaction price of metal coarse calcium (Ca≥96%) in Shanxi is 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium wire (Ca≥97%, Φ6.5-8.5mm (ton bag/iron drum)) in Henan The price is 20,300-20,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium particles (Ca≥96%, 0-3mm (new barrel)) is 19,800-20,000 yuan/ton (ex-factory cash including tax).

(3) Forecast of calcium metal market outlook

Since the beginning of this month, the price of calcium metal has been stable and slightly stronger, but the actual transaction situation is not ideal. Due to the reduction in the consumption of steel enterprises, the shipments of individual enterprises have also been affected to a certain extent. Compared with calcium metal wire, the market of calcium metal particles is even stronger The main reason is that the domestic use of calcium-iron cored wire is relatively small, and the consumption of metal calcium particles is very limited. However, considering the cost factor, calcium metal factories still maintain high prices, and there is no sign of price reduction. It is expected that the calcium metal market will continue to operate in a slight consolidation during May, with limited room for ups and downs.


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