Ferrosilicon March review: demand recovery is limited, silicon market is weak and down
In March, when the demand performance of ferrosilicon was average and profits narrowed, the number of factory shutdowns increased, and the supply decreased significantly. The market was in a weak supply and demand situation. The futures market fluctuated within a narrow range in the first and mid-term, and the pace of spot transactions was poor. Both speculation and actual demand were sluggish, and the market price continued to loosen slightly. In the second half of the year, with the increase in factory shutdowns, the market sentiment improved slightly. In addition, semi-coke production was limited and prices were guaranteed, and the futures market rose in the short term. At the end of the month, the mainstream market price was 72#7400-7600 and 75#7900-8000 yuan/ton, which was 100-300 yuan/ton lower than that in February.
1. This month’s market review of ferrosilicon
The ex-factory price of silica in Qinghai and Ningxia is 200-250 yuan/ton, and the price varies from factory to factory. Shenfu blue charcoal small material is 1270-1500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1200-1400 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 70-100 yuan/ton. The 70# iron oxide sheet in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 920-950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month without a ticket, and rose to 990-1020 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 70 yuan/ton.
Ferrosilicon spot market
|Product Name||Specification||Region Price||Price 3rd||31st||Change||Remarks|
|Silica||98%||Northwest||200-250||200-250||—||Tax included at factory|
|Semi-coke (small material)||fixed carbon≥82%||Yulin||1270-1500||1200-1400||↓85||ex-factory tax included
|Semi-coke (medium material)||fixed carbon≥84%||Yulin||1300-1550||1250-1450||↓75||ex-factory tax included
|Semi-coke (aniseed) fixed carbon||fixed carbon≥83%||Yulin||1300-1700||1350-1450||↓100||ex-factory tax included
|Iron oxide scale||70||Shijiazhuang||920-950||990-1020||↑70||Without ticket
|Iron oxide scale||70||Tianjin Daqiuzhuang||940-970||1010-1040||↑70||Without ticket
|Iron oxide scale||70||Nanjing||900-970||970-1040||↑70||Without ticket
In March, the ferrosilicon market continued to fall compared with February. At the end of the month, the market price was 72#7400-7600, 75#7900-8000 yuan/ton in cash, 72# fell 100-300 yuan/ton, and 75# fell steadily and slightly.
Specifically: the futures market fluctuated downward in the first ten days, the spot transaction was average, the price of semi-coke was slightly loose, and the factory began to reduce production for maintenance, but the market lacked confidence, and the actual transaction performance was deserted. The price was 72#7500-7650, 75#7900-8000 yuan The natural block of cash per ton leaves the factory, which is 50-100 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The mid-term futures are still weak and narrowly down. The downstream waits and sees the market, or turns to the market to receive lower-priced goods. A small number of factories trade, and the price is under pressure. Natural block leaves the factory, 72# falls by 50-200 yuan/ton, 75# since the Junzheng small furnace stopped production, the supply has decreased, the factory inventory has been consumed, and the market price has remained stable. In the middle and late ten days, with the increase of ferrosilicon furnace shutdowns, Shenmulan carbon production limit, and price protection, and market rumors of energy consumption warning in Wuzhong City, the futures market rose temporarily. However, due to the general transaction follow-up, the futures market fell back at the end of the month, and the market returned to calm. At the end of the month, the market price was 72#7400-7600, 75#7900-8000 yuan/ton, and the cash natural block leaves the factory, which has little change compared with the mid-term.
In terms of output this month: the latest statistics show that in March, there were 82 ferrosilicon enterprises in production nationwide, and 250 submerged arc furnaces were in production, a decrease of 43 units compared with February. The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in March was 53.99%, a decrease of 8.38% from February. The output is expected to be 464,300 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from February, and a decrease of 75,800 tons from 540,100 tons in March 2022. The cumulative output from January to March 2023 is 1.4615 million tons, a decrease of 88,000 tons compared with the same period in 2022.
According to customs data, China exported 22,675.36 tons of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% in February 2023, a decrease of 30,533.3 tons from January and a month-on-month decrease of 57.38%. Compared with 44247.892 tons in the same period last year, it decreased by 21572.532 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 48.75%. From January to February 2023, a total of 75,900 tons will be exported, a decrease of 36,800 tons compared with the same period last year.
In February 2023, China’s export volume of ferrosilicon with silicon content ≤55% was 1706.6 tons, a decrease of 746.144 tons from January, a decrease of 30.42% from the previous month, and a decrease of 835.15 tons from 871.45 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 95.83%.
Steel mills invite tenders in April
In April, the progress of steel recruitment was slow. The price of Shagang was 7930 yuan/ton, and that of Kunming Iron and Steel was 8120/8130 yuan/ton.
2. The downstream market of ferrosilicon
Metal magnesium: The transaction price of magnesium ingots this month is 19,800-20,900 yuan/ton in cash, and the monthly average price hovers around 20,000 yuan. At the beginning of the month, the magnesium price opened a downward channel driven by weak demand. Even after the cost line was approached in the middle of the month, the factory’s willingness to stabilize the price was not as good as the actual demand. With the weakening of raw material prices, the magnesium price fell by 20,000 yuan to nearly 20 The lowest price since March. In the second half of the month, factories successively expressed plans to advance maintenance and production cuts, and the overall output in March fell slightly.
3. Forecast for next month of ferrosilicon
The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the inventory of manufacturers decreased, the inventory of delivery warehouses increased, the demand side of magnesium metal decreased slightly, the foundry was sluggish, and the profits of the export side were thin. The daily production of crude steel in steel mills rebounded, so attention should be paid to the purchase volume of steel mills. With the decline in the supply of ferrosilicon, the contradiction between supply and demand has eased. It is expected that the market price will not change much in the first ten days of April, and focus on the start of construction and downstream demand performance in the middle and late ten days.
Anyang Lishi Industrial ferrosilicon manufacturer
Anyang Lishi Industrial was established in 1999, factory covers an area of 45,000 square meters, with complete ferroalloys production equipment. Located in the Anyang #ferroalloy industry area, nearby Tianjin& Qingdao port, with sufficient warehouses and inventories ensure a strong supply capacity. If have any inquiries, please contact Email: firstname.lastname@example.org, Whatsapp/ Tel: 0086 15837207537.