1. Exports of ferrosilicon to Russia and China
According to customs data, Russia is the second largest ferrosilicon producer in the world, with ferrosilicon exports in January 2022 of 32,274 tons, down 23% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. Mainly due to the month-on-month decrease of 69% to 17,142 tons of ferrosilicon imported by Japan, and the decrease of 59% to 3,025 tons of ferrosilicon by Turkey. In contrast, India’s imports of ferrosilicon from Russia increased by 272% due to higher domestic ferrosilicon prices in January 2022.
According to Russia’s customs data, we can see that the amount of ferrosilicon exported to Japan and Turkey has dropped significantly. Let’s compare China’s ferrosilicon exports to Japan and Turkey in January-February: China’s ferrosilicon exports to Japan in January-February 2022 is 10634.041 tons ,an increase of 9.22% compared to the same period last year; from January to February 2022, China’s ferrosilicon exports to Turkey were 3,797.056 tons, an increase of 2,094.83% compared to the same period in 2021. Statistics indicate that Turkey Most of the demand for ferrosilicon has been transferred from Russia to China. The performance of Japan’s demand transfer is not very obvious. We may wait until the customs data in March comes out.
As for India, it can be seen that its demand for ferrosilicon is shown a rising trend, with imports from Russia increasing by 272%. From January to February 2022, China’s ferrosilicon exports to India amounted to 10,683.601 tons, an increase of 9,854.601 tons compared to the same period last year. The increase is 1188.73%, and India may be a key exporter of China’s ferrosilicon.
2. China’s ferrosilicon exporters will increase significantly in 2022
According to the customs data from January to February, many countries imported ferrosilicon from China from January to February, which increased significantly compared with last year. The import of ferrosilicon from the United States increased by 10,712%, Brazil imported ferrosilicon by 13,705.56%, and Indonesia imported ferrosilicon increase of 2840.38%. Turkey, Australia, Saudi Arabia, India, Mexico and other countries also increased by more than 100%. According to the amount of ferrosilicon imported from China by these countries in 2021, the amount of ferrosilicon imported by some countries from China in January-February 2022 has exceeded 50% of that of last year. Among them: India’s imports reached 65.39% last year, Turkey’s 46.96% last year, Brazil reached 262.32% last year, Saudi Arabia reached 69.92% last year, Saudi Arabia reached 69.91% last year, the United States reached 315.03% last year, many countries originally imported ferrosilicon from Russia and Ukraine Or regions are transfer their needs to China.
3. New countries for China’s ferrosilicon exports in January-February 2022
Comparing the customs data in January-February 2021 and January-February 2022, it can be seen that compared with January-February last year, China’s ferrosilicon export flow has increased to many new countries. Among them, the number of ferrosilicon exported from China to the Netherlands is 4020.87 tons, Canada 760 tons, and Peru 626 tons, it can be seen that these newly added countries are basically dominated by Europe and the United States. Russia is the world’s second largest ferrosilicon producer after China and a major source of ferrosilicon in Europe and the United States. The price of raw materials has risen sharply due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The Russian suspension of supplies has severely affected global markets, especially the European Union, where sanctions imposed on Russia have led European buyers to source supplies from China. According to the feedback from Chinese domestic traders, the export volume of ferrosilicon in March 2022 is more than that in January and February, and the overall overseas demand for ferrosilicon is performing well.
4. Production reduction in overseas ferrosilicon producing countries
The setback of overseas ferrosilicon may also be one of the reasons for the increase in China’s ferrosilicon exports. Two ferrosilicon furnaces at OM in Malaysia are planned to be converted to metal silicon; Discussed the use of one of its three ferrosilicon furnaces for overhaul and maintenance to reduce ferrosilicon production, the company’s annual production capacity of ferrosilicon is about 220,000 tons, including specialty alloys and casting grade alloys, expected from February to June 2022 This month, the plant will cut output by at least 4,000 tons due to power problems. The escalating conflict in Russia and Ukraine also has a slight impact on the country’s ferrosilicon production.
5. Outlook for China’s Ferrosilicon Export Market in 2022
On the whole, the recovery of production in the international market has shown an upward trend in the demand for ferrosilicon. For China, the good development of overseas demand also has a good support for domestic ferrosilicon prices. In 2021, China’s ferrosilicon output will be 5.86 million tons, of which the total export volume in 2021 will be 546,700 tons. In the first half of 2022, under the background of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that China’s ferrosilicon export volume may reach a new high, especially in March, the export volume of ferrosilicon may exceed 80,000 tons, and the average monthly export volume this year may exceed 50,000 tons, which can alleviate the pressure caused by high domestic production and high supply to a certain extent. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eases in the second half of the year, it may lead to a decrease in China’s ferrosilicon exports in the second half of the year, and European and American countries will still choose to import ferrosilicon from Russia, Ukraine and other countries.