Ferrosilicon Price Trend Analysis(10.16-10.20)

Ferrosilicon futures continued to fall this week. The futures price fell below the cost. The spot price for receiving goods was even lower. The supply of low-priced goods was impacted. Factory quotations fell under pressure. However, manufacturers had difficulty in receiving orders and closing orders. They mainly delivered early orders. According to the news, an energy consumption work meeting was held in Qinghai, but there was no actual impact.

The Ningxia Department of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to carry out peak-shifting production in some key industrial industries in the winter and spring of 2023-2024. Zhongwei’s specific peak-shifting documents have not yet been issued, and the impact is unknown. This week, three companies in Zhongwei underwent maintenance, and one company in Shaanxi resumed production. In the latter part of the week, the market price was 72#6700-6900, and 75#7400-7600 yuan/ton of cash natural blocks left the factory, down 100-200 yuan/ton.


1. Domestic market this week of ferrosilicon

Ferrosilicon futures are still on a downward trend this week. On the one hand, downstream steel mills are experiencing overall losses and crude steel production data continues to decline. On the other hand, the ferrosilicon supply has been recovering for four months, and the market lacks confidence. The futures price fell below the cost, and the price for receiving goods at the market price was more advantageous than that of the factory. Affected by the low price on the market, it was difficult for manufacturers to receive orders. They mainly consumed early orders, and the quotations were under pressure. The price of raw material blue carbon is stable. The electricity price has been reduced by 2 cents only in Inner Mongolia. There has been no adjustment in other regions for the time being. The cost of ferrosilicon is supported.

This week, factories are undergoing maintenance and resumption of production. Zhongwei Dayou and Maoye each overhauled two ferrosilicon furnaces due to line problems, and two units underwent ternary maintenance to replace equipment. Fugu Juyuan resumed production of one unit and Longhua resumed production of one unit. Although the news included an energy consumption conference held in Qinghai and a notice on staggered peak production in winter and spring issued by the Ningxia Department of Industry and Information Technology, there was no substantial impact yet and supply and demand had not yet changed. The market did not buy it, and the week ended with a decline.


2. Export market this week of ferrosilicon

Export prices continued to fall this week, domestic market prices fell, foreign customers waited and kept the pressure on prices, export market transactions were sparse, prices continued to loosen, FOB72#1260-1300, 75#1340-1380 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. India’s prices ranged from 100,000 to 101,000 rupees/ton, with individual prices at 104,000 rupees/ton, a slight decrease.

3. Downstream market of ferrosilicon

Magnesium metal: The magnesium market is still in a downward trend this week, with the decline expanding. The transaction price fell from 23,600 yuan to 22,300 yuan, a drop of 1,300 yuan/ton. Demand released slowly after the holidays, and some magnesium factories and stock trading companies cut prices to stimulate transactions. However, under the falling market, downstream manufacturers had an obvious wait-and-see attitude and cautious operations. Market orders were scarce, pessimism was strong, and prices continued to fall.

4. Prediction for next week of ferrosilicon

The price of raw materials has not changed much, and the cost of ferrosilicon is still supported. Silicon prices continue to fall, and some high-cost areas have already suffered slight losses. Ferrosilicon production is expected to peak in the future, and attention will be paid to subsequent changes in construction starts. Steel mills have thin profits or even losses. It is expected that crude steel output will continue to decline in the next few months of this year.

Ferrosilicon export data was released in September. Export volume continues to decline and remains at a low level. Ferrosilicon may enter a state of both supply and demand reduction in the fourth quarter. Next week will enter the second half of the year. In the absence of news stimulation, it is expected that the price adjustment will not be large, and the focus will be on the changes at the start of construction in the Zhongwei area.

5. LS ferrosilicon

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