Ferrosilicon Weekly Review (2.27-3.3): The market is stalemate and fluctuates within a narrow range
This week, ferrosilicon is in a stalemate. On the one hand, the demand has not improved significantly, and the price of steel bills continues to drop. On the other hand, factories have cut production and overhauled, and the supply has begun to decline. However, the supply and demand structure has not changed, and the market inventory will also take time to consume. The futures market rose last week, but the follow-up was weak. This week, it maintained a slight shock situation. The spot price did not adjust much and fluctuated within a narrow range. At the end of the week, the market price was 72#7500-7800, 75#7900-8000 yuan/ton cash natural block ex-factory, 72# fell slightly, and 75# rose steadily.
1. The domestic market this week
This week, the ferrosilicon market is in a tepid situation. Last week, the Alashan mine accident drove up coal prices, and semi-coke prices also stopped falling and rebounded. However, coal prices began to decline in the latter part of this week, and some semi-coke factories also slightly loosened their quotations. The price is 1270-1500 yuan/ton for small materials. In March, the steel recruitment continued to advance, and the mainstream price of steel companies that had bid was 8,300-8,400 yuan/ton and accepted to the factory, which was 100-200 yuan/ton lower than that in February. The futures market was weak and fluctuated this week. Spot manufacturers pulled back their high quotations, and some factories began to arrange orders after their inventories decreased, but the inventories in some regions were still relatively large. There is a lack of large orders in the market, and the replenishment is mainly based on just-needed goods.
In terms of factories: the 10 small furnaces that need to be replaced by the large Wuhai factory have been shut down, and the replaced large furnaces will be put into operation in 2-3 months. Zhongwei Dayou overhauled one furnace, Jinhai Haoyue overhauled one furnace, and Zhongwei Shengjin overhauled one furnace in early February to resume production.
In terms of steel recruitment: Nanjing Iron and Steel is priced at 8,340 yuan/ton, Minyuan Iron and Steel is priced at 8,140 yuan/ton in cash, Xinyu Iron and Steel is priced at 8,350 yuan/ton, and Jinshenglan Group is priced at Hubei 8130, Jiangsu 8130, Guangdong Yunfu 8300, and Guangdong Heyuan 8350 yuan/ton In cash, Kunming Iron and Steel is priced at 8,320 yuan/ton, and Sanming Iron and Steel is priced at 8,350 yuan/ton and a half in cash.
2. This week’s export market
Domestic ferrosilicon fluctuated within a narrow range this week, export prices continued to narrow, foreign demand was generally released, internal and external competition was fierce, quotations continued to decline slightly, FOB72#1510-1550, 75#1590-1620 US dollars / ton, compared with last week Fall 15-20 US dollars / ton. The transaction in the Indian market is normal, the quotation is 70# 12.4-12.6 million rupees/ton, and the low price moves down slightly.
3. The downstream market
Magnesium metal: Magnesium ingots are running in a downtrend this week, downstream demand is not performing well, the inventory pressure of magnesium factories is still high, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been alleviated. Due to the pressure of transaction and inventory, the price of magnesium factories continued to fall this week, and the market price in the later period of the week At 20,800 yuan/ton in cash, it was 600-700 yuan/ton lower than last week.
4. Forecast for next week
Next week, the February electricity prices in the main production areas will be settled one after another, so pay attention to the electricity price settlement situation. The daily output on the supply side will decline, and the speculative demand on the demand side is not active. The steel mills have started steel recruitment, and the magnesium plants and exports are still in the doldrums. It is expected that the market will not change much next week, and the main focus will be on supply and demand and electricity prices.