Multivariate Monthly Review in February: The transaction price of calcium silicon fell, the low barium was weak, and the transaction of calcium metal was sluggish
The release of demand was slow in February, and the overall market performance was relatively calm. The transaction status of multi-products such as silicon-calcium, silicon-barium and metal calcium was not good, and the price was difficult to maintain firm, and the transaction price remained stalemate and weak.
1. Calcium silicon
In February, the price of silicon-calcium alloy was loose.
(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium silicon in February
As shown in the figure above, the mainstream transaction price in the national standard ca1 market in Shaanxi is 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton; The transaction price of ca2 market is 12,400-12,600 yuan/ton, that of Ningxia is 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton, that of Inner Mongolia is 12,100-12,300 yuan/ton; that of ca28si55 in Henan is 11,800-12,000 yuan/ton, and that of ca28si50 The transaction is 10400-10700 yuan / ton (including tax in cash).
(2) Export market price of calcium silicon in February
According to this month’s export market transaction report data, the current national standard ca1 export transaction price is 1850-1950 US dollars / ton, national standard ca2 1830-1930 US dollars / ton (FOB price, Tianjin Port), this month the export price of calcium silicon is stable.
(3) Start-up statistics
According to the statistics of 6 national standard silicon-calcium alloy production enterprises on this website, there are 3 enterprises in the silicon-calcium market in February 2023, and the actual number of furnaces is 4. The operating rate of the enterprises is about 50%, and the operating rate of the number of furnaces is about 40. %, the same as last month. It is estimated that the total market output in February will be about 5,000 tons, which is not much different from the actual output in January (5,050 tons).
(4) Future market forecast of calcium silicon
This month, most of the downstream enterprises are mainly consuming the previous inventory. The trading situation of the silicon-calcium market is still not optimistic. Constrained by the weak demand, the actual transaction price of the silicon-calcium alloy has a negative performance, and the Inner Mongolia silicon-calcium factory resumes production at the end of the month, and the market competition The pressure is increasing, and the factories are operating under pressure. At the end of the month, steel recruitment was carried out one after another, and some steel companies showed signs of shrinking in the purchase of silicon-calcium cored wire, so the consumption of raw materials was also relatively slow. Generally speaking, the weak demand is difficult to reverse, and the silicon-calcium market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the market will hardly have a substantial improvement in recent months.
2. Barium silicon
This month, the price of high-barium alloys is weakly stable and consolidated, while the trend of low-barium alloys is down.
(1) Domestic market trend chart of silicon barium in February
(2) Domestic market price
As shown in the monthly price comparison table, the current high barium 30# Inner Mongolia 9200-9400 yuan/ton, Gansu high barium 9300-9400 yuan/ton; low barium 4-6# natural block Inner Mongolia 8300 yuan/ton, Ningxia 8200-8400 yuan/ton Ton, Qinghai 8100-8200 yuan / ton, low barium 2-3# natural block Inner Mongolia 8300 yuan / ton, Ningxia 8200-8400 yuan / ton (ex-factory price including tax).
(3) Start-up Statistics
According to the incomplete statistics of 17 high- and low-barium alloy production enterprises on this website, in February 2023, a total of 9 enterprises started to produce silicon-barium alloys in the silicon-barium market (including 5 high-barium production enterprises and 5 low-barium production enterprises (including self-use) ), 1 high and low barium production enterprise), the actual number of furnaces is 13, the operating rate (by manufacturer) is about 58.82%, an increase of 5.88% from the previous month, and the expected output is 13,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous month.
(4) Future market forecast of silicon barium
This month, the high barium price has not consolidated much, which is mainly due to the weak start of production in the market. Although there are not many manufacturers in production, the demand is weak, and inventory consumption is still a big problem. Low-barium alloys continue to loosen under the downward trend of ferrosilicon and the restraint of demand. Due to the unstable market trend and cautious downstream purchases, the market transaction status is even more deserted. March is approaching, and the downstream inventory consumption is coming to an end, or a new round of procurement plans will be launched, and the sales volume of the silicon-barium market may be slightly boosted.
(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium metal in February
(2) Domestic market price
At present, the mainstream transaction price of metal coarse calcium (Ca≥96%) in Shanxi is 16,000-16,800 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium wire (Ca≥97%, Φ6.5-8.5mm (ton bag/iron drum)) in Henan The price is 19,500-20,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium particles (Ca≥96%, 0-3mm (new barrel)) is 19,300-20,000 yuan/ton (ex-factory cash including tax).
(3) Forecast of calcium metal market outlook
This month, the transaction activity in the calcium metal market is not high, and the downstream enterprises mainly consume the stocks from years ago. In addition, the competition pressure of the calcium metal factories is high, the transaction price continues to drop, and most factories operate at a loss. At the end of the month, with the opening of steel recruitment, market inquiries increased slightly, and some factories raised prices slightly to reduce the pressure of inversion. However, the overall market environment is still poor, and factories still have insufficient confidence in stabilizing prices in the later stage.