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Price Analysis of Silicon Calcium in March 2023

This month, steel mills have reduced production in large numbers, and foundries have not resumed production. The demand for front-end multi-alloy products has been greatly reduced. In the recession again, the price of calcium silicon has been repeatedly reduced to facilitate transactions. The supply and demand of the silicon and barium market are both weak, and barium prices remain high. Stable, low barium products fell slightly. Calcium metal also showed a downward trend in the first half of the year due to demand constraints, but in the second half of the year, factory quotations were raised across the board due to the good news of reduced market output.

1. Calcium silicon

The weak situation of calcium silicon prices in March remains unchanged.

(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium silicon in March

(2) Domestic market price

As shown in the figure above, the mainstream transaction price of the national standard ca1 market in Shaanxi is 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton, the market transaction price in Ningxia is 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton, and the market transaction price in Inner Mongolia is 10,500-10,600 yuan/ton; the national standard in Shaanxi region The transaction price of ca2 in the market is 10400-10500 yuan/ton, the market transaction price in Ningxia is 10400-10500 yuan/ton, the market transaction price in Inner Mongolia is 10400-10500 yuan/ton; the transaction price of ca28si55 in Henan is 9900-10100 yuan/ton, ca28si50 The transaction price was 9100-9200 yuan/ton (cash including tax).

(3) Calcium silicon export market price in March

According to this month’s export market transaction report data, the current export transaction price of national standard ca1 is 1450-1500 US dollars/ton, and the national standard ca2 1430-1450 US dollars/ton (FOB price, Tianjin Port). The export price of calcium silicate has declined this month.

(4) Construction start statistics

According to statistics from this website on 5 national standard calcium silicon alloy manufacturers, there were 4 furnace manufacturers in the calcium silicon market in March 2024, with a total of 5 furnaces actually operating. The company’s operating rate was about 80%, and the furnace operating rate was about 55.56 %, the total market output in March is expected to be about 6,000 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the actual output in February (7,300).

(5) Calcium silicon market outlook forecast

The market depression has intensified this month, with steel mills experiencing poor performance and a large number of concentrated production cuts. There are very few inquiries in the calcium silicate market and transactions are even more deserted. In order to reduce costs, downstream purchasing prices have been significantly lowered. In order to facilitate transactions, calcium silicate plants have to continue to sell at a profit. Although the start-up output of the calcium silicon market has decreased this month, the demand has shrunk much faster than the factory production reduction, and the market operation pressure is still high. With electricity prices on the high side and actual sales prices falling, some manufacturers are even more determined to stop production. The negative market outlook dominates the market, and it is expected that the calcium silicon market will continue to weaken next month.

2. Silicon barium

This month, high barium prices continued to remain stable, while low barium market prices continued to weaken and consolidate.

(1) Domestic market trend chart of barium silicon in March

(2) Domestic market price

As shown in the monthly price comparison table, the current price of high barium 30# in Inner Mongolia is 7900-8100 yuan/ton, and there is currently no quotation in Gansu; the low barium 4-6# natural block is 6900-7000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia 6800-6900 yuan/ton, and Qinghai 6700-6800 yuan/ton; low barium 2-3# natural block 6900-7000 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia 6800-6900 yuan/ton; (smelting type) silicon barium inoculant 4-6#, 1-3mm, 3- 8mm is 7800-7900 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and Anhui, 7400-7700 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia (factory price including tax).

(3) Construction start statistics

According to the incomplete statistics of 18 high- and low-barium alloy manufacturers on this website, a total of 6 companies started production in the silicon-barium market in March 2024 (including 3 high-barium production companies and 4 low-barium production companies (including self-use ), 1 high and low barium production enterprise), the actual number of furnaces is 10, the operating rate (according to the manufacturer) is about 33.33%, the same as the previous month, the expected output is 7500 tons, down 1200 tons from the previous month.

(4) Forecast of silicon barium market outlook

The market price of high barium continues to remain stable this month. There are few manufacturers of high barium in production. Even if the downstream demand shrinks, the market spot inventory pressure is not great. In addition, high barium production capacity continues to decrease in the second half of the year, which plays a certain role in stabilizing the price of high barium. support. The low-barium market has also started less operations, and current manufacturers mostly maintain production orders. However, as the prices of ferrosilicon and blue carbon continue to weaken, downstream price reductions are strong, and foundries control raw material costs. Some orders in the low-barium market have continued to decline. High barium transfer, under various unfavorable factors, low barium market prices have also loosened slightly. Overall, the silicon barium market is in a weak state of supply and demand. Later price changes require focus on the impact of changes in construction start-up on prices. The short-term market may focus on price stabilization.

3. Metal calcium

(1) Domestic market trend chart of metallic calcium in March

(2) Domestic market price

At present, the mainstream transaction price of metallic crude calcium (Ca≥96%) in Shanxi is 18,000-18,100 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metallic calcium wire (Ca≥97%, Φ6.5-8.5mm (ton bag/iron drum) in Henan region The price is 21,000-21,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium particles (Ca≥96%, 0-3mm (new barrel) is 20,500-21,000 yuan/ton (cash including ex-factory tax).

(3) Forecast of the market outlook for metallic calcium

In the first half of the year, metallic calcium products showed a downward trend due to weak demand. In the second half of the year, some calcium plants in Shanxi reduced production due to tight gas supply. As the supply shrank, and the price of raw aluminum ingots strengthened, the original calcium plants Raise prices collectively. Under the weak market conditions, calcium products bucked the trend, and downstream purchases were more cautious, with most people waiting and watching. The market trend of calcium metal in April is temporarily unclear, but given the poor overall environment, it will be difficult for prices to remain strong.

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