In 2022, under the pressure of the epidemic, rare earth alloy factories and downstream foundries will show signs of production reduction and suspension; coupled with factors such as environmental protection restrictions and high temperatures in many places, upstream and downstream companies will basically stock up on demand, and orders will become colder. The overall market conditions are weak and stable. Towards the end of the year, the epidemic prevention and control policy was completely liberalized. The country ushered in a large number of people infected with the epidemic. The production of individual factories was blocked, and employees were quarantined at home. The enthusiasm for market operations was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. Some companies had to sell at lower prices. The competition in the industry has entered a fierce stage.
(1) Review of Rare Earth Alloy Market
1. Market review of rare earth ferrosilicon
The first quarter: The market for rare earth silicon remained stable from January to mid-March. Due to environmental protection issues, terminal foundries were unable to sell goods. Therefore, manufacturers were not very active in stocking up, and there was no good news to support the policy. In addition, the epidemic affected the economy. , The market as a whole is not as good as before, generally showing a depression trend, and the upstream and downstream supply and demand are stalemate. The quotation of 30# one-step rare earth ferrosilicon with tax is 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton; the quotation of 30# two-step rare earth ferrosilicon with tax is 15,000-16,000 yuan/ton.
The second quarter: the price of rare earth silicon began to fluctuate in mid-March. The highest quotation for 30# one-step method was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest quotation was 12,000 yuan/ton; the highest quotation for 30# two-step method was 16,500 yuan/ton, the lowest The current quotation is 15,000 yuan/ton. On the one hand, due to the transportation control of the epidemic situation, the demand for stocking up in downstream alloy factories has emerged, and the willingness to purchase rare earth ferrosilicon has increased slightly; the other reason is that the supply of rare earth silicon in the spot market has tightened and the price of raw materials has fluctuated, resulting in the quotation of rare earth silicon. Not very stable.
The third quarter: The price of rare earth silicon gradually fell, with a drop of about 1,000 yuan/ton. At the end of September, the price of rare earth silicon was 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton including tax for 30# one-step method; 14,500-15,500 yuan/ton for 30# two-step method. The main reason for the price drop this time is that during the off-season of casting, the demand of downstream alloy factories is not good, and manufacturers are not very active in stocking, and basically purchase on demand.
The fourth quarter: Since the fourth quarter, the market for rare earth silicon has been weak and stable as a whole. The epidemic situation in various regions is relatively severe, and the contradiction between supply and demand between upstream and downstream is prominent. Manufacturers are not highly motivated to purchase, and the market transactions are slightly light, and they have been operating in a weak position.
2. Market review of rare earth magnesium silicon
In the first quarter, the 3-8 cash ex-factory price including tax in the rare earth magnesium Inner Mongolia area was 13,000-13,500 yuan/ton, and the 5-8 cash ex-factory price was 13,500-14,000 yuan/ton; -15,000 yuan/ton, 5-8 cash ex-factory price including tax is 14,500-15,500 yuan/ton. The downstream foundry industry has poor demand, but the raw material market is strong, the profit margin of rare earth magnesium is limited, the market price is basically stable, and the supply and demand have entered a stalemate stage for the time being.
In the second to third quarters, under the severe epidemic situation abroad, the export and transaction of rare earth magnesium silicon orders were unsatisfactory, especially the downstream foundry enterprises and the automobile industry were affected. In addition, domestic consumption was limited, so downstream manufacturers had a mentality of stocking up Not too thick, most of them are replenished on demand, and the transaction of rare earth magnesium silicon is mediocre. With the unstable market of raw materials and the low purchase volume of superimposed foundries, rare earth magnesium also ushered in a period of price volatility. At the highest time, the price of 3-8 in Inner Mongolia was 13,500 yuan/ton, and that of 5-8 was 14,000 yuan/ton; the price of 3-8 in Jiangsu was 15,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 5-8 was 15,500 yuan/ton in cash. At the lowest time, the quotation of 3-8 in Inner Mongolia area is 10,000 yuan/ton, the quotation of 5-8 is 10,500 yuan/ton; the quotation of 3-8 in Jiangsu area is 11,500 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 5-8 is 12,000 yuan/ton.
In the fourth quarter, the rare earth magnesium silicon market returned to stability after ups and downs, and there were not many actual orders in the market. Due to the off-season in winter and the epidemic policy, the downstream foundries generally did not start operations well. Manufacturers still purchase on demand in terms of inquiries and purchases Mainly. As the end of the year is approaching and environmental protection is intensifying, the shipments of rare earth magnesium factories have also temporarily slowed down. The upstream and downstream supply and demand are running at a stalemate, and the market transactions are slowly advancing. -8 ex-factory tax quotation is 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton; -8 Ex-factory price including tax is 11,500-12,000 yuan/ton. It is normal for the rare earth magnesium market to be weak and stable, and manufacturers will wait for the market in the next year before making plans.
(2) Prospect of Rare Earth Alloy Market in 2023
The economic growth rate will be slow in 2022. Due to multiple factors such as the epidemic and environmental protection, the upstream and downstream production, manufacturing, casting and other industries of rare earth alloys will be affected. Coupled with the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad, the market for rare earth alloys this year will generally be weak and unfavorable. With policy support, orders for downstream companies are difficult. The relaxation of epidemic control at the end of the year will undoubtedly boost the market next year, and demand may improve. In 2023, the rare earth alloy market will go up and down. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the fluctuation of raw material prices, on the other hand, we should pay attention to the changes of downstream factories and the ratio of supply and demand in the terminal market.
On the whole, the market has strong positive expectations for it. At the same time, under the adjustment of the current epidemic prevention and control policy, the expectation of demand recovery after the two sessions in March next year will continue to strengthen. Therefore, the market price of rare earth alloys may have a strong drive make it detective.