Multivariate Monthly Review in January: The price of silicon calcium has risen sharply, the trend of silicon barium is weak and stable, and metal calcium is showing a downward trend.
2023-1-31: Calcium silicon production capacity is reduced, there are few enterprises in the market, and factory quotations continue to increase, waiting for the transaction to be confirmed. The price of silicon barium is stable and weakening, the main restraining factor is still that the supply and demand are difficult to match, and the factory is under pressure and the quotation is loose. Calcium metal market transactions are flat, high price transactions are difficult, and prices continue to fall.
1. Calcium silicon
The price of silicon-calcium alloy rose sharply in January.
(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium silicon in January
As shown in the figure above, the mainstream transaction price in the national standard ca1 market in Shaanxi is 12,800-13,000 yuan/ton; The market transaction price of ca2 is 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton, that of Ningxia is 12,600-12,800 yuan/ton, that of Inner Mongolia is 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton; that of ca28si55 in Henan is 11,800-12,000 yuan/ton, and that of ca28si50 The transaction is 10400-10700 yuan / ton (including tax in cash).
(2) Export market price of calcium silicon in January
According to this month’s export market transaction report data, the current national standard ca1 export transaction price is 1800-1900 US dollars / ton, national standard ca2 1750-1850 US dollars / ton (FOB price, Tianjin Port), the export price of calcium silicon is stable this month.
(3) Start-up Statistics
According to the statistics of 6 national standard silicon-calcium alloy production enterprises on this website, there are 3 enterprises in the silicon-calcium market in January 2023, and the actual number of furnaces is 4. The operating rate of the enterprises is about 50%, and the operating rate of the number of furnaces is about 40. %, the total market output in January is expected to be about 5,000 tons, which is 200 tons less than the actual output in December (5,200 tons).
(4) Future market forecast of calcium silicon
In the first ten days, the start-up of calcium-silicon factories in Fugu area was reduced, and there were only two normal manufacturers of calcium-silicon alloys in the national standard. Thanks to this, the quotations of calcium-silicon factories were raised twice in a row, with an increase of nearly 1,000 yuan, but the price adjustment period was closer to the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the downstream processing plants and steel enterprises have finished stocking up, and they are not willing to buy at high prices, so they mainly wait and see. With the resumption of the market after the festival, the pace of resumption of work by downstream enterprises is slow, and most of the enterprises that started work have unfinished orders before the delivery year, and there is still no purchase intention for the raw material silicon-calcium alloy. Overall, the release of demand is slow, and the inventory of silicon-calcium has not been exhausted. It is expected that the number of transactions at high prices for silicon-calcium will be small in a short period of time.
2. Barium silicon
This month, the price of high-barium alloys is running weakly, and the price of low-barium alloys is stable and slightly loose.
(1) domestic market trend chart of silicon barium in January
(2) Domestic market price
As shown in the monthly price comparison table, the current high barium 30# Inner Mongolia is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, the Gansu high barium is 9300-9400 yuan/ton; the low barium 4-6# natural block Inner Mongolia, Ningxia 8500-8600 yuan/ton, Qinghai, Gansu 8400-8500 yuan / ton, low barium 2-3# natural block Inner Mongolia, Ningxia 8500-8600 yuan / ton (ex-factory cash tax included).
(3) Start-up Statistics
According to the incomplete statistics of 16 high- and low-barium alloy production enterprises on this website, in January 2023, a total of 9 enterprises started to produce silicon-barium alloys in the silicon-barium market (including 5 high-barium production enterprises and 5 low-barium production enterprises (including self-use) ), 1 high and low barium production enterprise), the actual number of furnaces is 14, and the operating rate (according to the manufacturer) is about 56.25%, which is the same as that of the previous month.
(4) Future market forecast of silicon barium
The price of high barium continued to loosen slightly this month, and under the pressure of market demand and inventory, there were only two high barium manufacturers in Gansu in January. In the early days of the Spring Festival, there were fewer low-barium alloy manufacturers, and the market supply and demand remained in a tight balance. Factory quotations were mainly stable. After the festival, a new low-barium manufacturer was added in Gansu and Ningxia. With the increase in production capacity, market quotations were chaotic and weak . Market demand has not yet been released in large quantities, but due to the reduction in production capacity, it is expected that high-barium alloys will operate stably in the short term, while the market for low-barium alloys will increase with production, and the possibility of downward consolidation of high quotations in the later period cannot be ruled out.
3. Calcium metal
(1) Domestic market trend chart of calcium metal in January
(2) Domestic market price
At present, the mainstream transaction price of metal coarse calcium (Ca≥96%) in Shanxi is 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium wire (Ca≥97%, Φ6.5-8.5mm (ton bag/iron drum)) in Henan The price is 19,800-20,500 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of metal calcium particles (Ca≥96%, 0-3mm (new barrel)) is 19,500-20,000 yuan/ton (ex-factory cash including tax).
(3) Forecast of calcium metal market outlook
This month, under the restraint of weak market demand, the price of calcium metal continued to decline, with an overall drop of about 2,000 yuan/ton. During the first half of the year, on the one hand, it was restrained by the price decline of raw material aluminum ingots, on the other hand, the overall market transaction was not prosperous, the downstream price was obviously suppressed, and the quotations of factories were under pressure. After the Spring Festival, the downstream recovered slowly, the market transactions were still deserted, and the quotations of factories were lowered again. At present, steel enterprises and downstream enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, and it still takes time to consume. Therefore, there is not much demand for calcium products. It is expected that the price of calcium metal will hardly improve next week, and will continue to maintain a weak and stable state.