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Electricity limited & Epidemic affects production capacity, and silicon material prices continue to rise

On August 17, the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “Silicon Industry Branch”) updated the price of silicon material, and the price of polysilicon continued to rise slightly, including single crystal re-feeding, single crystal dense material, and single crystal cauliflower material, and the average transaction price rose by about 0.3%. This is the 27th increase in the price of silicon material this year.

Specifically, the domestic single crystal re-feeding price range this week is between 300,000 yuan/ton and 310,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 305,300 yuan/ton, up 0.36% week-on-week; the price range of single crystal dense material is 29.8 RMB 10,000/ton – RMB 308,000/ton, the average transaction price is RMB 303,200/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.33%; the mainstream transaction price of single crystal cauliflower material is RMB 295,000-306,000/ton, with an average price of RMB 300,500/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.33%.

“The continuous growth of silicon material prices is actually a staged fluctuation. For a mature industry, the gross profit margin of each link should be basically stable, but the photovoltaic industry is not yet.” An executive of a photovoltaic module company told CBN, “At present, there is a short-term mismatch of production capacity in the whole industry. In my personal opinion think that people have not to jell together to devote themselves to this industry, which is an unhealthy phenomenon.”

Industry analysis that upstream silicon companies generally signed orders for the entire month at the beginning of the month, and now the market is basically dominated by long-term orders, over-signed orders and a small number of scattered orders. The prices of a small number of scattered orders that were traded were relatively high, concentrated in the range of 305,000 yuan/ton to 310,000 yuan/ton. ”

The price of silicon material continued to rise this week, mainly due to the continuous negative inventory state of silicon material, the continuous “fermentation” of power cuts in Sichuan and the epidemic situation in Xinjiang.

The analysis of the silicon industry branch said “Since most of the silicon material companies have no order balance and the negative inventory status continues, the shortage of silicon materials remains unabated.”

The power curtailment policy in Sichuan has a certain extent impact on the production of local silicon material enterprises with production capacity. On August 15, Sichuan Province issued the “Emergency Notice on Expanding the Implementation Scope of Industrial Enterprises Allowing Electricity to the People” (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”). The “Notice” requires that 19 cities (prefectures) in the province (except Panzhihua and Liangshan) expand the scope of industrial enterprises to allow electricity to the people, and provide all industrial power users (including whitelist key guarantees) in the orderly electricity consumption plan of Sichuan Power Grid. Enterprises) implement full production shutdown (except for security loads), take a high temperature holiday, and let electricity be used by the people, from 00:00 on August 15th to 24:00 on August 20th, 2022.

The Silicon Industry Branch believes that local industrial silicon, polysilicon, and monocrystalline silicon production enterprises are all expected to be significantly reduced due to power constraints. Among them, polysilicon production enterprises will go from shutdown to resumption of work, from load reduction to full load, and the time to affect output will be reduced by at least 10-15 days. ”

In addition, the shipment and logistics of silicon material enterprises in Xinjiang have been affected to varying degrees by the epidemic.

The Silicon Industry Branch pointed out that polysilicon enterprises whose logistics and transportation are slightly affected are concentrated in Xinjiang, and all enterprises ship normally, but Logistics transportation vehicles and transportation time guarantee issues are affected to varying degrees.

“From the perspective of cost, due to the impact of the epidemic, some areas in Xinjiang have restricted the start of construction, the price of raw material silica has increased slightly, and the overall production cost has increased. From the perspective of inventory, affected by the production in Sichuan and some areas of Xinjiang. Recently, manufacturers have increased their willingness to reduce shipments and raise prices, traders have more inventory, and social inventory has increased.” Huatai Futures predicted that while inventories continued to increase, but downstream consumption did not recover significantly, with the subsequent increase in precipitation in Sichuan and the control of the epidemic in Xinjiang, The price of silicon material is more likely to fall.

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