The future trend of silicon metal mainly depends on the resolution of the below factors:
First of all, for production capacity, the price remains high, and some production capacity will resume production, but it will take a certain period.
Secondly, electricity limited in Yunnan are still ongoing. Due to insufficient power supply, some silicon factories in Baoshan, Yunnan have received notices of electricity limited, and industrial silicon furnaces are still shut down. It is difficult to recover in the short term.
Thirdly, if domestic prices remain high, exports are expected to decrease. China’s silicon metal is mainly exported to Asian countries. Although it is rarely exported to European and American countries, due to the recent high global prices, European industrial silicon has increased production. In the past few years, due to domestic cost advantages, China’s silicon metal production has an absolute advantage, and the export volume is large. However, when the price is high, other regions will also increase production capacity, and exports will decrease.
Finally, in terms of downstream demand, more organosilicon and polysilicon will be put into production in the second half of the year. The total production capacity of enterprises that will be put into production in the second half of the year will be about 900,000 tons. In addition to the 400,000 tons of enterprises that have already put into production this year, the new production capacity will be nearly 1.3 million ton this year. Ton. In terms of polysilicon, about 230,000 tons of production capacity is planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter of this year, and the overall demand for metal silicon is estimated to be about 500,000 tons. However, the consumer market for end products may not consume the new capacity, so the overall operating rate of the new capacity will be lower.
Generally speaking, it is expected that the shortage of metal silicon will continue this year, but the gap will not be particularly large. Nevertheless, the second half of the year will face challenges for organic silicon and polysilicon companies that do not have supporting metal silicon.